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Reflect the development trend of world science academic journals

Science Focus  2010, Vol. 5 Issue (1): 1-9    DOI:
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The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts
R. D. Shelton, P. Foland
WTEC, 86½ Golde Street, Johnstown, PA 15902 (USA)
WTEC, 4800 Roland Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21210 (USA)
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The US and EU have been vying for leadership of science and technology; now they are being overtaken by the People's Republic of China. The US is now leading in most input indicators, but the EU has taken the lead in important outputs. While the PRC remains behind in most indicators, its incredible progress from being underdeveloped during the Cultural Revolution to being a contender in this race is almost unprecedented. Qualitative assessment of fields of research and development, based on recent expert review studies, confirm that many Chinese labs have made rapid progress. Extrapolations from the current status and recent rates of change suggest that China will soon rival the others as a scientific superpower in many indicators. Further, a formal forecast of national publication shares can now be made, perhaps for the first time. The input to the model is a country’s share of world R&D investment. If current trends in investment continue, the US and EU are forecast to continue to decline, while the PRC is expected to near parity with them within ten years in the Science Citation Index. Some confirmation comes from other databases—China has already passed the US in Inspec and Compendex.

Key wordsscience and technology      inputs      outputs      paper share      model      forecast       US      EU      China     
Published: 15 February 2010

Cite this article:

R. D. Shelton, P. Foland. The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts. Science Focus, 2010, 5(1): 1-9.

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